Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-10-31?
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
10
Yes 50%
$2.5K
-$7.36
56.3¢ → 61.5¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Yesavg 56.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$21.21 | 57% 1755-1309 (3064) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 43.1¢ | $896.93 | $866.09 | -$30.84 | 59% 46056-32360 (78416) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $51.51 | $49.9 | -$1.61 | 53% 15998-14180 (30178) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $18.55 | $18.38 | -$0.18 | 53% 4883-4360 (9243) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $17.04 | $17.22 | +$0.19 | 54% 56713-48922 (105635) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $14.5 | $13.38 | -$1.13 | 50% 25253-24999 (50252) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $5.51 | $8.95 | +$3.44 | 59% 10284-7273 (17557) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 47.7¢ | $7.15 | $8.48 | +$1.33 | 54% 6317-5345 (11662) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $5.1 | $5.35 | +$0.25 | 58% 42088-30563 (72651) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.33 | -$0.02 | 48% 2435-2653 (5088) |
oieshfn345Invested
$1,460.02
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$21.21
Record
57%
1755-1309 (3064)
Invested
$896.93
Value
$866.09
PnL
-$30.84
Record
59%
46056-32360 (78416)
Invested
$51.51
Value
$49.9
PnL
-$1.61
Record
53%
15998-14180 (30178)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$18.55
Value
$18.38
PnL
-$0.18
Record
53%
4883-4360 (9243)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$17.04
Value
$17.22
PnL
+$0.19
Record
54%
56713-48922 (105635)
Invested
$14.5
Value
$13.38
PnL
-$1.13
Record
50%
25253-24999 (50252)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$5.51
Value
$8.95
PnL
+$3.44
Record
59%
10284-7273 (17557)
Invested
$7.15
Value
$8.48
PnL
+$1.33
Record
54%
6317-5345 (11662)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$5.1
Value
$5.35
PnL
+$0.25
Record
58%
42088-30563 (72651)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.33
PnL
-$0.02
Record
48%
2435-2653 (5088)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.