Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-10-31?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$3.3K
$294.78
85¢ → 100¢
+18% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 82.6¢ | $2.0K | $2.3K | +$287.31 | 57% 1768-1328 (3096) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 90¢ | $804.42 | $893.55 | +$89.13 | 59% 46230-32531 (78761) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $67.08 | $69.85 | +$2.76 | 54% 56824-49050 (105874) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $35.05 | $27.06 | -$7.99 | 49% 12788-13237 (26025) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $9.96 | $11.99 | +$2.03 | 53% 5014-4502 (9516) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $5.35 | $5 | -$0.35 | 54% 6346-5362 (11708) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $78.55 | $0.47 | -$78.07 | 50% 25353-25122 (50475) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.04 | $0 | -$0.04 | 59% 10341-7332 (17673) |
oieshfn345Invested
$1,984.42
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$287.31
Record
57%
1768-1328 (3096)
Invested
$804.42
Value
$893.55
PnL
+$89.13
Record
59%
46230-32531 (78761)
RN1<$100Invested
$67.08
Value
$69.85
PnL
+$2.76
Record
54%
56824-49050 (105874)
Invested
$35.05
Value
$27.06
PnL
-$7.99
Record
49%
12788-13237 (26025)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.96
Value
$11.99
PnL
+$2.03
Record
53%
5014-4502 (9516)
Invested
$5.35
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.35
Record
54%
6346-5362 (11708)
Invested
$78.55
Value
$0.47
PnL
-$78.07
Record
50%
25353-25122 (50475)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.04
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.04
Record
59%
10341-7332 (17673)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.