Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-11-01?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Yes88¢No12¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$145.44

Smart Money Entry

39.6¢ → 88¢

+122% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$578.8

Total Shares852

Combined PnL+$155.7

No2 traders

Total Value$210.1

Total Shares551

Combined PnL-$10.25

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 70.8¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$181	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70.8¢	$842.06	$998.89	+$156.83
└ No leg	Noavg 34.5¢	$629.25	$291.43	-$337.83
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 36.6¢	$321.17	$463.44	+$135.64	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 29.9¢	$329.78	$271.01	-$58.77	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
└ No leg	Noavg 29.9¢	$272	$191.16	-$80.84
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.2¢	$57.78	$79.84	+$22.06
RN1CTR	Noavg 39.1¢	$200.21	$202.02	+$1.8	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$41.04	$57.57	+$16.53	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 72.8¢	$21.85	$23.4	+$1.55	54% 6427-5413 (11840)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$16.76	$17.96	+$1.2	58% 10670-7658 (18328)
US User7429<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$12	$11.52	-$0.48	55% 8413-6766 (15179)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 47.4¢	$20.14	$8.08	-$12.06	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$3.6	$4.9	+$1.25	52% 7504-6793 (14297)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,471.32

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$181

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

Both legs:

Yes$842.0670.8¢+$156.83

No$629.2534.5¢-$337.83

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$321.17

Value

$463.44

PnL

+$135.64

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$329.78

Value

$271.01

PnL

-$58.77

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

Both legs:

No$27229.9¢-$80.84

Yes$57.7857.2¢+$22.06

RN1CTR

Invested

$200.21

Value

$202.02

PnL

+$1.8

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.04

Value

$57.57

PnL

+$16.53

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.85

Value

$23.4

PnL

+$1.55

Record

54%

6427-5413 (11840)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.76

Value

$17.96

PnL

+$1.2

Record

58%

10670-7658 (18328)

User7429<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$11.52

PnL

-$0.48

Record

55%

8413-6766 (15179)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$20.14

Value

$8.08

PnL

-$12.06

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.6

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$1.25

Record

52%

7504-6793 (14297)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.