Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-11-05?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 87%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$221.96

Smart Money Entry

88.3¢ → 97.9¢

+11% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$999.95

Total Shares1,011

Combined PnL+$241.91

Yes2 traders

Total Value$7.53

Total Shares543

Combined PnL-$19.94

No — 87%Yes — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 90.8¢	$428.52	$422.31	+$32.97	60% 911-595 (1506)
ME merod	Noavg 93.4¢	$183.4	$195.97	+$12.57	43% 3101-4154 (7255)
RO roscoff	Noavg 75¢	$130.83	$171.92	+$41.08	52% 173-159 (332)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$63.28	$67.84	+$4.55	44% 6442-8142 (14584)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 97.8¢	$503	$39.92	-$4.34	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 97.8¢	$116.87	$20.23	+$0.16	47% 1679-1862 (3541)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$27.69	$18.02	+$0.19	55% 4405-3598 (8003)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 4.7¢	$15.38	$15.83	+$154.02	72% 13908-5278 (19186)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 97.8¢	$231.92	$15.13	+$0.31	40% 2163-3205 (5368)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$18.72	$11.86	+$0.12	41% 1179-1673 (2852)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$8.81	$8.93	+$0.11	40% 1032-1567 (2599)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$21.79	$7.44	-$14.36	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$22.22	$6.86	+$0.05	39% 1066-1669 (2735)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 97.7¢	$112.49	$5.14	+$0.11	47% 2130-2428 (4558)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.5¢	$36.59	$0.09	-$5.59	58% 45420-32909 (78329)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$428.52

Value

$422.31

PnL

+$32.97

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

merod

Invested

$183.4

Value

$195.97

PnL

+$12.57

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

roscoff

Invested

$130.83

Value

$171.92

PnL

+$41.08

Record

52%

173-159 (332)

korda77<$100

Invested

$63.28

Value

$67.84

PnL

+$4.55

Record

44%

6442-8142 (14584)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$503

Value

$39.92

PnL

-$4.34

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$116.87

Value

$20.23

PnL

+$0.16

Record

47%

1679-1862 (3541)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$27.69

Value

$18.02

PnL

+$0.19

Record

55%

4405-3598 (8003)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$15.38

Value

$15.83

PnL

+$154.02

Record

72%

13908-5278 (19186)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$231.92

Value

$15.13

PnL

+$0.31

Record

40%

2163-3205 (5368)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$18.72

Value

$11.86

PnL

+$0.12

Record

41%

1179-1673 (2852)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$8.81

Value

$8.93

PnL

+$0.11

Record

40%

1032-1567 (2599)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.79

Value

$7.44

PnL

-$14.36

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$22.22

Value

$6.86

PnL

+$0.05

Record

39%

1066-1669 (2735)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$112.49

Value

$5.14

PnL

+$0.11

Record

47%

2130-2428 (4558)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.59

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$5.59

Record

58%

45420-32909 (78329)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.