Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-10-30?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 80%
$3.3K
-$347.17
98.7¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$126.96 | 54% 56379-48535 (104914) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 99¢ | $820.71 | $737.81 | -$82.9 | 50% 33227-32776 (66003) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 98¢ | $606.01 | $550.36 | -$55.65 | 57% 1681-1260 (2941) |
DR Dreamwire | Noavg 99.9¢ | $554.99 | $494.44 | -$60.55 | 83% 2592-524 (3116) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 97.8¢ | $279.89 | $254.78 | -$25.11 | 50% 24902-24623 (49525) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.3¢ | $29.58 | $31.58 | +$2 | 53% 15892-14085 (29977) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $44.76 | $29.55 | +$2.8 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $5.7 | $5.34 | -$0.36 | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $4.8 | $4.45 | -$0.35 | 54% 6204-5263 (11467) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $0.96 | $0.89 | -$0.07 | 38% 3268-5352 (8620) |
RN1Invested
$1,308.52
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$126.96
Record
54%
56379-48535 (104914)
Invested
$820.71
Value
$737.81
PnL
-$82.9
Record
50%
33227-32776 (66003)
oieshfn345Invested
$606.01
Value
$550.36
PnL
-$55.65
Record
57%
1681-1260 (2941)
Invested
$554.99
Value
$494.44
PnL
-$60.55
Record
83%
2592-524 (3116)
Invested
$279.89
Value
$254.78
PnL
-$25.11
Record
50%
24902-24623 (49525)
Invested
$29.58
Value
$31.58
PnL
+$2
Record
53%
15892-14085 (29977)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$44.76
Value
$29.55
PnL
+$2.8
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$5.34
PnL
-$0.36
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.45
PnL
-$0.35
Record
54%
6204-5263 (11467)
Invested
$0.96
Value
$0.89
PnL
-$0.07
Record
38%
3268-5352 (8620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.