Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-10-30?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$80.02

Smart Money Entry

89.5¢ → 99.6¢

+11% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,411

Combined PnL+$81.26

No3 traders

Total Value$21.64

Total Shares433

Combined PnL-$1.24

Yes — 73%No — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Yesavg 95¢	$483.01	$487.08	+$4.07	57% 1681-1260 (2941)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 99¢	$290.07	$278.35	-$11.72	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 72¢	$295.2	$210.24	+$51.04	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 72¢	$110.88	$146.3	+$35.42	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 94.1¢	$113.73	$114.83	+$1.09	50% 24902-24623 (49525)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 95¢	$103.17	$103.17	-$0	49% 12512-12895 (25407)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$8.27	$13.95	+$5.68	50% 33227-32776 (66003)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 5.1¢	$6.2	$6.13	-$0.07	38% 3268-5352 (8620)
RO Rocky31<$100	Yesavg 92¢	$5.48	$5.66	+$0.18	74% 1570-563 (2133)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$5	$4.78	+$1.18	47% 2290-2563 (4853)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$8.41	$1.56	-$6.85	53% 15892-14085 (29977)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$483.01

Value

$487.08

PnL

+$4.07

Record

57%

1681-1260 (2941)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$290.07

Value

$278.35

PnL

-$11.72

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$295.2

Value

$210.24

PnL

+$51.04

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$110.88

Value

$146.3

PnL

+$35.42

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$113.73

Value

$114.83

PnL

+$1.09

Record

50%

24902-24623 (49525)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$103.17

Value

$103.17

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

12512-12895 (25407)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$8.27

Value

$13.95

PnL

+$5.68

Record

50%

33227-32776 (66003)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$6.2

Value

$6.13

PnL

-$0.07

Record

38%

3268-5352 (8620)

Rocky31<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.48

Value

$5.66

PnL

+$0.18

Record

74%

1570-563 (2133)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.78

PnL

+$1.18

Record

47%

2290-2563 (4853)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$8.41

Value

$1.56

PnL

-$6.85

Record

53%

15892-14085 (29977)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.