Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (61%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CD Huachipato vs. CD La Serena: O/U 2.5
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (13%) · Over at 40¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 13%
$27.8K
$2.8K
Research grade
NeutralOver at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Under 61%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH theowalcottCTR | Overavg 57¢ | $14.2K | $14.5K | +$10.51 | 49% 110-116 (226) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 43.3¢ | $7.0K | $9.4K | +$2.4K | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
 RN1 | Underavg 44.7¢ | $2.9K | $3.3K | +$440.24 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
CA Cannae | Underavg 43¢ | $240.67 | $235.02 | -$5.65 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Underavg 43¢ | $129 | $142.5 | +$13.5 | 54% 4943-4171 (9114) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $89.44 | $87.36 | -$2.08 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $10.72 | $12.01 | +$1.29 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 43.3¢ | $244.95 | $5.78 | -$1.19 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
Invested
$14,239.59
Value
$14.5K
PnL
+$10.51
Record
49%
110-116 (226)
Invested
$7,036.22
Value
$9.4K
PnL
+$2.4K
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
RN1Invested
$2,907.07
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$440.24
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$240.67
Value
$235.02
PnL
-$5.65
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
Invested
$129
Value
$142.5
PnL
+$13.5
Record
54%
4943-4171 (9114)
Invested
$89.44
Value
$87.36
PnL
-$2.08
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.72
Value
$12.01
PnL
+$1.29
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
VeryLucky888Invested
$244.95
Value
$5.78
PnL
-$1.19
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.