Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 4 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will CD La Serena win on 2026-11-01?

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 40¢ · $34K held · ended Nov 1

Yes40¢No60¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

Total Value

$33.9K

Combined PnL

$804.94

Smart Money Entry

38¢ → 40¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 14 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$17.6K

Total Shares45,091

Combined PnL+$1.4K

No10 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares27,094

Combined PnL-$622.35

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH theowalcottCTR	Yesavg 38¢	$14.3K	$14.7K	+$1.3K	49% 110-116 (226)
RN1	Noavg 62.5¢	$6.3K	$5.9K	-$399.99	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 62¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	-$99.65	50% 2544-2531 (5075)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 61.6¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$69.03	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 38¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$97.57	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
poshposh	Noavg 61.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$9	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 63¢	$762.93	$738.71	-$24.22	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
CA Cannae	Noavg 62.1¢	$655.33	$643.85	-$11.48	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$313.75	$313.8	+$0.04	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 63.4¢	$217.57	$209.23	-$8.34	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 60.7¢	$23.06	$22.61	-$0.45	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
oieshfn345<$100	Noavg 58.5¢	$12.41	$12.83	+$0.41	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 67¢	$13.4	$6.1	-$0.6	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$1.85	$2.15	+$0.3	50% 33863-33445 (67308)

theowalcottCTR

Yes

Invested

$14,349.3

Value

$14.7K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

49%

110-116 (226)

RN1

Invested

$6,250.78

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$399.99

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$4,046.65

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$99.65

Record

50%

2544-2531 (5075)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$3,773.86

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$69.03

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,470.98

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$97.57

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

poshposh

Invested

$1,107

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$9

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$762.93

Value

$738.71

PnL

-$24.22

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

Cannae

Invested

$655.33

Value

$643.85

PnL

-$11.48

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$313.75

Value

$313.8

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$217.57

Value

$209.23

PnL

-$8.34

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$23.06

Value

$22.61

PnL

-$0.45

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

oieshfn345<$100

Invested

$12.41

Value

$12.83

PnL

+$0.41

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$13.4

Value

$6.1

PnL

-$0.6

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 14 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.