Will CD Coquimbo Unido vs. CD Unión La Calera end in a draw?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 57¢ · $921 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$920.91
$36.14
66.6¢ → 57¢
-14% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 66.3¢ | $468.92 | $424.89 | -$44.02 | 57% 1681-1260 (2941) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 33.5¢ | $249.43 | $372.6 | +$123.17 | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 67.6¢ | $86.36 | $63.87 | -$22.49 | 38% 3268-5352 (8620) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $66.33 | $49.5 | -$16.83 | 50% 24902-24623 (49525) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $7.4 | $5 | -$2.4 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $2.5 | -$0.85 | 54% 6204-5263 (11467) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $2.88 | $2.44 | -$0.44 | 54% 56379-48535 (104914) |
oieshfn345Invested
$468.92
Value
$424.89
PnL
-$44.02
Record
57%
1681-1260 (2941)
Invested
$249.43
Value
$372.6
PnL
+$123.17
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
Invested
$86.36
Value
$63.87
PnL
-$22.49
Record
38%
3268-5352 (8620)
Invested
$66.33
Value
$49.5
PnL
-$16.83
Record
50%
24902-24623 (49525)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$7.4
Value
$5
PnL
-$2.4
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0.85
Record
54%
6204-5263 (11467)
RN1<$100Invested
$2.88
Value
$2.44
PnL
-$0.44
Record
54%
56379-48535 (104914)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.