Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-10-30?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 70¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 30

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$214.4

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 69.5¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares5,076

Combined PnL+$458.28

Yes6 traders

Total Value$999.63

Total Shares3,477

Combined PnL-$243.88

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 74.6¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$202.58	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
RN1	Noavg 67.8¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$260.97	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 36.6¢	$966.74	$837.26	-$129.48	57% 1681-1260 (2941)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$475.63	$519.6	+$43.97	50% 24902-24623 (49525)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18¢	$306.81	$306.37	-$0.43
└ No leg	Noavg 64.9¢	$168.82	$213.23	+$44.4
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 83¢	$321.75	$317.88	-$3.88	49% 12512-12895 (25407)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 80¢	$96.46	$90	-$6.46	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
└ No leg	Noavg 80¢	$53.56	$54.9	+$1.34
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22¢	$42.9	$35.1	-$7.8
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Yesavg 39.7¢	$181.51	$82.39	-$99.12	38% 3268-5352 (8620)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 17¢	$373.71	$56.88	-$4.84	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$15.8	$14.22	-$1.58	53% 15892-14085 (29977)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$16.83	$7.97	-$8.86	59% 10007-6969 (16976)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$8.15	$6.75	-$1.4	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$0.9	$0.9	+$0	54% 6204-5263 (11467)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$2,079.89

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$202.58

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

RN1

Invested

$1,303.26

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$260.97

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$966.74

Value

$837.26

PnL

-$129.48

Record

57%

1681-1260 (2941)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$475.63

Value

$519.6

PnL

+$43.97

Record

50%

24902-24623 (49525)

Both legs:

Yes$306.8118¢-$0.43

No$168.8264.9¢+$44.4

LuckyLoo

Invested

$321.75

Value

$317.88

PnL

-$3.88

Record

49%

12512-12895 (25407)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$96.46

Value

$90

PnL

-$6.46

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

Both legs:

Invested

$181.51

Value

$82.39

PnL

-$99.12

Record

38%

3268-5352 (8620)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$373.71

Value

$56.88

PnL

-$4.84

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.8

Value

$14.22

PnL

-$1.58

Record

53%

15892-14085 (29977)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.83

Value

$7.97

PnL

-$8.86

Record

59%

10007-6969 (16976)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$8.15

Value

$6.75

PnL

-$1.4

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6204-5263 (11467)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.