Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-10-30?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 56¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 57%
2 arb excluded
$6.7K
$10.87
52.1¢ → 56.5¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Yesavg 52¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$123.8 | 55% 1727-1418 (3145) |
 us391CTR | Noavg 48¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$75.65 | 51% 1672-1623 (3295) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 47.8¢ | $758.16 | $729.04 | -$29.12 | 50% 24867-24583 (49450) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 52.8¢ | $337.88 | $368.45 | +$30.57 | 59% 45388-31736 (77124) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 47¢ | $664.96 | $306.38 | -$38.77 | 58% 41528-30164 (71692) |
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Noavg 43.6¢ | $82.91 | $84.39 | +$1.48 | 53% 15887-14071 (29958) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 43.6¢ | $48.81 | $48.71 | -$0.1 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54¢ | $34.1 | $35.68 | +$1.58 | |
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $65.07 | $68.29 | +$1.66 | 57% 1677-1258 (2935) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 41¢ | $32.07 | $35.59 | +$1.96 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 55¢ | $33 | $32.7 | -$0.3 | |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $53.46 | $53.46 | +$0 | 58% 28432-20995 (49427) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $1.1 | $1.13 | +$0.03 | 52% 4041-3673 (7714) |
Invested
$3,218.9
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$123.8
Record
55%
1727-1418 (3145)
us391CTRInvested
$1,815.69
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$75.65
Record
51%
1672-1623 (3295)
Invested
$758.16
Value
$729.04
PnL
-$29.12
Record
50%
24867-24583 (49450)
Invested
$337.88
Value
$368.45
PnL
+$30.57
Record
59%
45388-31736 (77124)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$664.96
Value
$306.38
PnL
-$38.77
Record
58%
41528-30164 (71692)
Invested
$82.91
Value
$84.39
PnL
+$1.48
Record
53%
15887-14071 (29958)
Both legs:
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$65.07
Value
$68.29
PnL
+$1.66
Record
57%
1677-1258 (2935)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.46
Value
$53.46
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28432-20995 (49427)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.13
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
4041-3673 (7714)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.