Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Toronto Argonauts
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Toronto Argonauts (60%) · Toronto Argonauts at 72¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Toronto Argonauts
5
Toronto Argonauts 60%
$3.1K
-$204.21
67.4¢ → 72¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralToronto Argonauts at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Toronto Argonauts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MAGATheeStallion | Toronto Argonautsavg 67.3¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$21.38 | 57% 247-185 (432) |
BA Bagwell306CTR | Winnipeg Blue Bombersavg 31¢ | $619.69 | $619.69 | -$0 | 59% 4052-2864 (6916) |
 VeryLucky888 | Toronto Argonautsavg 67.9¢ | $1.6K | $412.32 | -$218.91 | 58% 41980-30479 (72459) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Winnipeg Blue Bombersavg 32.4¢ | $76.4 | $73.16 | -$6.78 | 58% 28754-21204 (49958) |
TA taylorsversion<$100 | Toronto Argonautsavg 67¢ | $13.41 | $13.61 | +$0.1 | 52% 127-116 (243) |
Invested
$1,999.88
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$21.38
Record
57%
247-185 (432)
Invested
$619.69
Value
$619.69
PnL
-$0
Record
59%
4052-2864 (6916)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,554.22
Value
$412.32
PnL
-$218.91
Record
58%
41980-30479 (72459)
Invested
$76.4
Value
$73.16
PnL
-$6.78
Record
58%
28754-21204 (49958)
Invested
$13.41
Value
$13.61
PnL
+$0.1
Record
52%
127-116 (243)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.