Montreal Alouettes vs. Edmonton Elks

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Montreal Alouettes (78%) · Montreal Alouettes at 58¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 22

Montreal Alouettes58¢Edmonton Elks42¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Montreal Alouettes

Consensus Traders

Montreal Alouettes 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

$144.42

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 58¢

-4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralMontreal Alouettes at 58%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Montreal Alouettes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Montreal Alouettes58%

Edmonton Elks42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Edmonton Elks2 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares12,998

Combined PnL+$470.73

Montreal Alouettes7 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares10,215

Combined PnL-$326.32

Edmonton Elks — 22%Montreal Alouettes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

75h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Montreal Alouettes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMontreal Alouettes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedMontreal Alouettes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Montreal Alouettes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversionCTR	Edmonton Elksavg 39.5¢	$4.6K	$5.0K	+$463.64	53% 117-104 (221)
RO roldy	Montreal Alouettesavg 60¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$150	48% 22-24 (46)
BA Bagwell306	Montreal Alouettesavg 61¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$160	38% 107-172 (279)
TO tomb2456CTR	Edmonton Elksavg 41¢	$581.57	$588.66	+$7.09	56% 54-42 (96)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Montreal Alouettesavg 59¢	$600	$584.75	-$15.25	31% 529-1167 (1696)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Edmonton Elksavg 47.4¢	$630	$501.61	+$2.38	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
└ Edmonton Elks leg	Edmonton Elksavg 47.4¢	$367.5	$329.38	-$38.13
└ Montreal Alouettes leg	Montreal Alouettesavg 50¢	$149.77	$172.24	+$40.5
VeryLucky888	Montreal Alouettesavg 57.8¢	$181.05	$80.37	+$0.11	54% 2045-1764 (3809)
MR MrBently<$100	Montreal Alouettesavg 57¢	$17.1	$17.25	+$0.15	0% 0-111 (111)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Montreal Alouettesavg 61¢	$10.8	$10.09	-$0.71	47% 691-793 (1484)
GA Gaditima<$100	Montreal Alouettesavg 63¢	$6.42	$5.81	-$0.61	49% 417-440 (857)

taylorsversionCTR

Edmonton Elks

Invested

$4,573.25

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$463.64

Record

53%

117-104 (221)

roldy

Montreal Alouettes

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$150

Record

48%

22-24 (46)

Bagwell306

Montreal Alouettes

Invested

$2,440

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$160

Record

38%

107-172 (279)

tomb2456CTR

Edmonton Elks

Invested

$581.57

Value

$588.66

PnL

+$7.09

Record

56%

54-42 (96)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Montreal Alouettes

Invested

$600

Value

$584.75

PnL

-$15.25

Record

31%

529-1167 (1696)

NotJumpARB<$100

Edmonton Elks

Invested

$630

Value

$501.61

PnL

+$2.38

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

Both legs:

Edmonton Elks$367.547.4¢-$38.13

Montreal Alouettes$149.7750¢+$40.5

VeryLucky888

Montreal Alouettes

Invested

$181.05

Value

$80.37

PnL

+$0.11

Record

54%

2045-1764 (3809)

MrBently<$100

Montreal Alouettes

Invested

$17.1

Value

$17.25

PnL

+$0.15

Record

0-111 (111)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Montreal Alouettes

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10.09

PnL

-$0.71

Record

47%

691-793 (1484)

Gaditima<$100

Montreal Alouettes

Invested

$6.42

Value

$5.81

PnL

-$0.61

Record

49%

417-440 (857)

Research grade

NeutralMontreal Alouettes at 58%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Montreal Alouettes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

75h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Montreal Alouettes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMontreal Alouettes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedMontreal Alouettes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Montreal Alouettes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Montreal Alouettes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.