Spread: Yale (-7.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yale (20%) · Yale at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yale
5
Yale 20%
$4.1K
$11.73
Research grade
NeutralYale at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MD mde4life1986 | Yaleavg 52¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$118.65 | 49% 153-157 (310) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Columbiaavg 48¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$74.55 | 50% 7031-7023 (14054) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Columbiaavg 45.8¢ | $700.19 | $667.87 | -$32.32 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
OD OddstormCTR | Columbiaavg 45.1¢ | $108.93 | $108.72 | -$0.21 | 39% 418-667 (1085) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Columbiaavg 44.9¢ | $56.6 | $42.91 | +$0.16 | 57% 13805-10579 (24384) |
Invested
$2,055.69
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$118.65
Record
49%
153-157 (310)
Invested
$1,192.8
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$74.55
Record
50%
7031-7023 (14054)
Invested
$700.19
Value
$667.87
PnL
-$32.32
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$108.93
Value
$108.72
PnL
-$0.21
Record
39%
418-667 (1085)
Invested
$56.6
Value
$42.91
PnL
+$0.16
Record
57%
13805-10579 (24384)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.