Yale vs. Columbia
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yale (75%) · Yale at 77¢ · $59 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yale
4
Yale 75%
$59.4
$17.74
Research grade
NeutralYale at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Yaleavg 72¢ | $23.8 | $25.45 | +$1.65 | 59% 30487-21198 (51685) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Columbiaavg 4.4¢ | $3.87 | $20.09 | +$16.21 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Yaleavg 74¢ | $9.62 | $10.01 | -$0.13 | 50% 7034-7032 (14066) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Yaleavg 77¢ | $3.85 | $3.85 | +$0 | 85% 5348-927 (6275) |
Invested
$23.8
Value
$25.45
PnL
+$1.65
Record
59%
30487-21198 (51685)
Invested
$3.87
Value
$20.09
PnL
+$16.21
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
Invested
$9.62
Value
$10.01
PnL
-$0.13
Record
50%
7034-7032 (14066)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$3.85
Value
$3.85
PnL
+$0
Record
85%
5348-927 (6275)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.