Spread: Wyoming (-10.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold UTEP (83%) · UTEP at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
UTEP
6
UTEP 83%
$2.0K
$7.71
56¢ → 56.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUTEP at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on UTEP. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | UTEPavg 56¢ | $979.62 | $979.62 | -$0 | 57% 3430-2600 (6030) |
PL pltrkr111 | UTEPavg 56¢ | $944.72 | $953.15 | +$8.43 | 3% 18-523 (541) |
SU suntori<$100 | UTEPavg 57¢ | $54.28 | $53.33 | -$0.95 | 47% 1458-1629 (3087) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | UTEPavg 56¢ | $25.76 | $25.99 | +$0.23 | 55% 197-161 (358) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | UTEPavg 56¢ | $7.53 | $7.53 | -$0 | 53% 866-756 (1622) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Wyomingavg 42¢ | $7.02 | $7.02 | -$0 | 52% 718-671 (1389) |
Invested
$979.62
Value
$979.62
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
3430-2600 (6030)
Invested
$944.72
Value
$953.15
PnL
+$8.43
Record
3%
18-523 (541)
Invested
$54.28
Value
$53.33
PnL
-$0.95
Record
47%
1458-1629 (3087)
Invested
$25.76
Value
$25.99
PnL
+$0.23
Record
55%
197-161 (358)
Invested
$7.53
Value
$7.53
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
866-756 (1622)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$7.02
Value
$7.02
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
718-671 (1389)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.