Spread: Western Michigan (-27.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Akron (33%) · Akron at 78¢ · $720 held · ends Nov 11

Western Michigan23¢Akron77¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Akron

Consensus Traders

Akron 33%

Total Value

$719.73

Combined PnL

-$0.23

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 77.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralAkron at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Akron

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Western Michigan23%

Akron78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Akron2 traders

Total Value$556.68

Total Shares718

Combined PnL-$3.82

Western Michigan4 traders

Total Value$163.04

Total Shares726

Combined PnL+$3.59

Akron — 33%Western Michigan — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Akron. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWestern Michigan 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Western Michigan 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Akronavg 78¢	$541.36	$537.89	-$3.47	48% 840-912 (1752)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Western Michiganavg 22¢	$140.81	$144.01	+$3.2	25% 213-642 (855)
GH ghorrock<$100	Akronavg 79.4¢	$19.14	$18.8	-$0.35	50% 274-269 (543)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Western Michiganavg 21.8¢	$14.7	$14.83	+$0.13	25% 214-632 (846)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Western Michiganavg 20¢	$2.13	$2.35	+$0.21	52% 125-115 (240)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Western Michiganavg 22¢	$1.81	$1.85	+$0.04	25% 212-653 (865)

38791873984189

Akron

Invested

$541.36

Value

$537.89

PnL

-$3.47

Record

48%

840-912 (1752)

LightParadoxCTR

Western Michigan

Invested

$140.81

Value

$144.01

PnL

+$3.2

Record

25%

213-642 (855)

ghorrock<$100

Akron

Invested

$19.14

Value

$18.8

PnL

-$0.35

Record

50%

274-269 (543)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$14.7

Value

$14.83

PnL

+$0.13

Record

25%

214-632 (846)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$2.13

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.21

Record

52%

125-115 (240)

LimousinCTR<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$1.81

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0.04

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

Research grade

NeutralAkron at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Akron

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Akron. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWestern Michigan 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Western Michigan 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Akron wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.