Spread: Western Michigan (-20.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Akron (40%) · Akron at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Akron
5
Akron 40%
$1.0K
$0.1
64¢ → 62¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralAkron at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Akron. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Akronavg 64¢ | $649.76 | $649.76 | +$0 | 48% 840-912 (1752) |
VE VenusianCTR | Western Michiganavg 36¢ | $268.44 | $268.44 | +$0 | 25% 212-653 (865) |
LI LimousinCTR | Western Michiganavg 36¢ | $113.14 | $113.14 | +$0 | 25% 212-653 (865) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Akronavg 64¢ | $8.6 | $8.6 | +$0 | 50% 274-269 (543) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Western Michiganavg 36¢ | $1.8 | $1.9 | +$0.1 | 25% 214-632 (846) |
Invested
$649.76
Value
$649.76
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
840-912 (1752)
Invested
$268.44
Value
$268.44
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
212-653 (865)
Invested
$113.14
Value
$113.14
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
212-653 (865)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$8.6
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
274-269 (543)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$1.9
PnL
+$0.1
Record
25%
214-632 (846)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.