Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Western Michigan, while the market favors Akron (55%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Western Michigan (-16.5)

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Western Michigan (83%) · Western Michigan at 46¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 11

Western Michigan46¢Akron54¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Western Michigan

Consensus Traders

Western Michigan 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.8K

Combined PnL

-$202.57

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 45.5¢

-4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralWestern Michigan at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Akron 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Western Michigan46%

Akron55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Western Michigan10 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares35,099

Combined PnL-$201.13

Akron2 traders

Total Value$472.44

Total Shares863

Combined PnL-$1.44

Western Michigan — 83%Akron — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWestern Michigan 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedWestern Michigan 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Western Michigan 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Western Michiganavg 47.5¢	$12.1K	$11.9K	-$132.71	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Western Michiganavg 46¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$38.95	48% 937-1010 (1947)
└ Western Michigan leg	Western Michiganavg 46¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$22.52
└ Akron leg	Akronavg 52¢	$816.5	$832.93	+$16.43
VeryLucky888CTR	Western Michiganavg 47¢	$2.3K	$1.9K	+$9.63	50% 260-256 (516)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Western Michiganavg 48¢	$1.0K	$973.4	-$53.48	49% 488-513 (1001)
NM NM-PCTR	Western Michiganavg 47.7¢	$500.5	$493.5	-$7	60% 3442-2337 (5779)
GC GC-PCTR	Western Michiganavg 47.7¢	$500.5	$493.5	-$7	16% 66-349 (415)
nigiri99	Akronavg 53.2¢	$453.12	$451.38	-$1.74	52% 126-118 (244)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Western Michiganavg 48¢	$326.34	$319.54	-$6.8	47% 149-168 (317)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Western Michiganavg 47¢	$188	$188	+$0	10% 83-781 (864)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Western Michiganavg 48¢	$168.28	$164.77	-$3.51	26% 233-650 (883)
PA Pan9X<$100	Akronavg 52¢	$20.77	$21.07	+$0.3	49% 438-463 (901)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Western Michiganavg 47.5¢	$25.54	$18.95	-$0.27	53% 346-302 (648)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Western Michiganavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.35	+$0	68% 1592-743 (2335)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Western Michigan

Invested

$12,081.74

Value

$11.9K

PnL

-$132.71

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$1,852.42

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$38.95

Record

48%

937-1010 (1947)

Both legs:

Western Michigan$1,035.9246¢+$22.52

Akron$816.552¢+$16.43

VeryLucky888CTR

Western Michigan

Invested

$2,321.17

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$9.63

Record

50%

260-256 (516)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Western Michigan

Invested

$1,026.88

Value

$973.4

PnL

-$53.48

Record

49%

488-513 (1001)

NM-PCTR

Western Michigan

Invested

$500.5

Value

$493.5

PnL

-$7

Record

60%

3442-2337 (5779)

GC-PCTR

Western Michigan

Invested

$500.5

Value

$493.5

PnL

-$7

Record

16%

66-349 (415)

nigiri99

Akron

Invested

$453.12

Value

$451.38

PnL

-$1.74

Record

52%

126-118 (244)

SnakeBallCTR

Western Michigan

Invested

$326.34

Value

$319.54

PnL

-$6.8

Record

47%

149-168 (317)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Western Michigan

Invested

$188

Value

$188

PnL

+$0

Record

10%

83-781 (864)

MadridTimeCTR

Western Michigan

Invested

$168.28

Value

$164.77

PnL

-$3.51

Record

26%

233-650 (883)

Pan9X<$100

Akron

Invested

$20.77

Value

$21.07

PnL

+$0.3

Record

49%

438-463 (901)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$25.54

Value

$18.95

PnL

-$0.27

Record

53%

346-302 (648)

RLWGCTR<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

1592-743 (2335)

Research grade

NeutralWestern Michigan at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Akron 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWestern Michigan 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedWestern Michigan 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Western Michigan 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Western Michigan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.