Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Akron, while the market favors Western Michigan (51%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Western Michigan (-15.5)

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Akron (88%) · Akron at 50¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 11

Western Michigan51¢Akron49¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Akron

Consensus Traders

Akron 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.0K

Combined PnL

$255.51

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 49.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralAkron at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Akron

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Western Michigan 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Western Michigan51%

Akron50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Akron7 traders

Total Value$21.5K

Total Shares43,129

Combined PnL+$95.77

Western Michigan1 trader

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,965

Combined PnL+$159.73

Akron — 88%Western Michigan — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Akron. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperAkron 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAkron 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedAkron 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Akron 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Akronavg 49.8¢	$10.2K	$10.0K	-$30.32	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
BA bands1CTR	Akronavg 49¢	$9.8K	$9.9K	+$100	50% 331-328 (659)
nigiri99	Western Michiganavg 47¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$159.73	52% 126-118 (244)
HI hi774cCTR	Akronavg 49¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.4	8% 37-421 (458)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Western Michiganavg 51¢	$696.5	$700	+$3.5	16% 66-349 (415)
└ Western Michigan leg	Western Michiganavg 51¢	$357	$353.5	-$3.5
└ Akron leg	Akronavg 48.5¢	$339.5	$346.5	+$7
NM NM-PARB<$100	Western Michiganavg 50.8¢	$687.32	$692.49	+$5.18	60% 3442-2337 (5779)
└ Akron leg	Akronavg 48.5¢	$339.5	$346.5	+$7
└ Western Michigan leg	Western Michiganavg 50.8¢	$347.82	$345.99	-$1.82
SN SnakeBallCTR	Akronavg 49¢	$242.4	$244.87	+$2.47	47% 149-168 (317)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Akronavg 49¢	$196	$198	+$2	10% 83-781 (864)
VeryLucky888CTR	Akronavg 48.5¢	$970	$31.43	+$10.59	50% 260-256 (516)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Akronavg 54¢	$15.68	$9	-$0.36	53% 346-302 (648)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Akron

Invested

$10,152.37

Value

$10.0K

PnL

-$30.32

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

bands1CTR

Akron

Invested

$9,800

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$100

Record

50%

331-328 (659)

nigiri99

Western Michigan

Invested

$1,862.42

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$159.73

Record

52%

126-118 (244)

hi774cCTR

Akron

Invested

$1,116.72

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.4

Record

37-421 (458)

GC-PARB<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$696.5

Value

$700

PnL

+$3.5

Record

16%

66-349 (415)

Both legs:

Western Michigan$35751¢-$3.5

Akron$339.548.5¢+$7

NM-PARB<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$687.32

Value

$692.49

PnL

+$5.18

Record

60%

3442-2337 (5779)

Both legs:

Akron$339.548.5¢+$7

Western Michigan$347.8250.8¢-$1.82

SnakeBallCTR

Akron

Invested

$242.4

Value

$244.87

PnL

+$2.47

Record

47%

149-168 (317)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Akron

Invested

$196

Value

$198

PnL

+$2

Record

10%

83-781 (864)

VeryLucky888CTR

Akron

Invested

$970

Value

$31.43

PnL

+$10.59

Record

50%

260-256 (516)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Akron

Invested

$15.68

Value

PnL

-$0.36

Record

53%

346-302 (648)

Research grade

NeutralAkron at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Akron

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Western Michigan 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Akron. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperAkron 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAkron 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedAkron 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Akron 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Akron wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.