Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Western Michigan, while the market favors Akron (52%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Western Michigan (-14.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Western Michigan (80%) · Western Michigan at 49¢ · $817 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Western Michigan
5
Western Michigan 80%
$816.9
-$11.56
49¢ → 48.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralWestern Michigan at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Akron 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Western Michiganavg 49¢ | $336.64 | $329.94 | -$6.7 | 57% 3062-2301 (5363) |
38 38791873984189 | Akronavg 51¢ | $246.47 | $246.47 | +$0 | 48% 674-721 (1395) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Western Michiganavg 49¢ | $236.8 | $231.97 | -$4.83 | 24% 196-614 (810) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Western Michiganavg 48¢ | $4.8 | $4.85 | +$0.05 | 47% 145-163 (308) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Western Michiganavg 49¢ | $3.75 | $3.67 | -$0.08 | 52% 223-209 (432) |
Invested
$336.64
Value
$329.94
PnL
-$6.7
Record
57%
3062-2301 (5363)
Invested
$246.47
Value
$246.47
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
674-721 (1395)
Invested
$236.8
Value
$231.97
PnL
-$4.83
Record
24%
196-614 (810)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
145-163 (308)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.67
PnL
-$0.08
Record
52%
223-209 (432)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.