Western Michigan vs. Akron

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Western Michigan (50%) · Western Michigan at 85¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11

Western Michigan85¢Akron15¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Western Michigan

Consensus Traders

Western Michigan 50%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$21.49

Smart Money Entry

84.5¢ → 84.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralWestern Michigan at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Western Michigan85%

Akron16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Western Michigan3 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,877

Combined PnL+$2.2

Akron3 traders

Total Value$727.26

Total Shares4,848

Combined PnL+$19.29

Western Michigan — 50%Akron — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWestern Michigan 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpWestern Michigan 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperAkron 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWestern Michigan 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Western Michigan 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Western Michiganavg 85¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$13.59	69% 2536-1149 (3685)
DA darkumbreon88	Western Michiganavg 84¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$13.03	4% 21-541 (562)
HO HomeRunHazard	Western Michiganavg 84¢	$463.68	$466.44	+$2.76	57% 3010-2261 (5271)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Akronavg 15¢	$421.73	$421.73	+$14.06	— 1-4 (5)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Akronavg 15¢	$185.68	$231.28	+$7.71	46% 124-145 (269)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Akronavg 16¢	$79.2	$74.25	-$2.48	52% 92-86 (178)

purplegatto

Western Michigan

Invested

$2,311.3

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$13.59

Record

69%

2536-1149 (3685)

darkumbreon88

Western Michigan

Invested

$2,188.74

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$13.03

Record

21-541 (562)

HomeRunHazard

Western Michigan

Invested

$463.68

Value

$466.44

PnL

+$2.76

Record

57%

3010-2261 (5271)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Akron

Invested

$421.73

Value

$421.73

PnL

+$14.06

Record

—

1-4 (5)

SnakeBallCTR

Akron

Invested

$185.68

Value

$231.28

PnL

+$7.71

Record

46%

124-145 (269)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Akron

Invested

$79.2

Value

$74.25

PnL

-$2.48

Record

52%

92-86 (178)

Research grade

NeutralWestern Michigan at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWestern Michigan 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpWestern Michigan 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperAkron 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWestern Michigan 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Western Michigan 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Western Michigan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.