Wisconsin vs. Maryland: O/U 43.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 76¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 14

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

$454.76

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 76¢

+31% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares10,438

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Over3 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares10,338

Combined PnL-$888.89

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Underavg 57¢	$4.3K	$5.4K	+$1.1K	22% 179-619 (798)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 42¢	$4.1K	$3.3K	-$841.92	59% 931-653 (1584)
RN1	Underavg 64¢	$512.64	$524.66	+$12.01	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 63.4¢	$497.52	$496.5	-$1.02	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 57.2¢	$568.28	$492.2	+$90.15	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 55.6¢	$336.84	$436.42	+$99.58	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR	Overavg 43¢	$143.89	$112.21	-$31.68	47% 99-111 (210)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 56.3¢	$88	$88.85	+$15.52	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 43.6¢	$65.87	$50.59	-$15.29	47% 540-597 (1137)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$4,284.13

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$4,142.35

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$841.92

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

RN1

Under

Invested

$512.64

Value

$524.66

PnL

+$12.01

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$497.52

Value

$496.5

PnL

-$1.02

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$568.28

Value

$492.2

PnL

+$90.15

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$336.84

Value

$436.42

PnL

+$99.58

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

AmericaFirst1CTR

Over

Invested

$143.89

Value

$112.21

PnL

-$31.68

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$88

Value

$88.85

PnL

+$15.52

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$65.87

Value

$50.59

PnL

-$15.29

Record

47%

540-597 (1137)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.