Spread: Wisconsin (-6.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Wisconsin (50%) · Wisconsin at 80¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Wisconsin80¢Maryland20¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wisconsin

Consensus Traders

Wisconsin 50%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$37.2

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 79.5¢

+35% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralWisconsin at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wisconsin

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Wisconsin80%

Maryland21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wisconsin5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,461

Combined PnL+$328.36

Maryland5 traders

Total Value$403.11

Total Shares1,893

Combined PnL-$365.56

Wisconsin — 50%Maryland — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Wisconsin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWisconsin 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMaryland 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedWisconsin 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Wisconsin 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Wisconsinavg 59¢	$453.07	$625.92	+$172.85	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
nigiri99	Wisconsinavg 58¢	$236.64	$332.52	+$95.88	51% 568-535 (1103)
PR primmCTR	Marylandavg 41¢	$614.46	$277.13	-$337.33	59% 931-653 (1584)
65 6512395314597884	Wisconsinavg 59¢	$133.89	$184.94	+$51.06	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Marylandavg 39¢	$76.31	$82.18	+$5.87	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
PA Pan9X<$100	Wisconsinavg 59¢	$24.42	$31.9	+$7.47	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
38 38791873984189CTR	Marylandavg 40¢	$586.85	$30.32	-$22.54	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Wisconsinavg 76¢	$15.2	$16.3	+$1.1	47% 540-597 (1137)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Marylandavg 42¢	$21.02	$9.26	-$11.76	47% 99-111 (210)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Marylandavg 40¢	$4.03	$4.23	+$0.2	53% 1809-1607 (3416)

RN1

Wisconsin

Invested

$453.07

Value

$625.92

PnL

+$172.85

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

nigiri99

Wisconsin

Invested

$236.64

Value

$332.52

PnL

+$95.88

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

primmCTR

Maryland

Invested

$614.46

Value

$277.13

PnL

-$337.33

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

6512395314597884

Wisconsin

Invested

$133.89

Value

$184.94

PnL

+$51.06

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Maryland

Invested

$76.31

Value

$82.18

PnL

+$5.87

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

Pan9X<$100

Wisconsin

Invested

$24.42

Value

$31.9

PnL

+$7.47

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

38791873984189CTR

Maryland

Invested

$586.85

Value

$30.32

PnL

-$22.54

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

justaluckydude<$100

Wisconsin

Invested

$15.2

Value

$16.3

PnL

+$1.1

Record

47%

540-597 (1137)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Maryland

Invested

$21.02

Value

$9.26

PnL

-$11.76

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Maryland

Invested

$4.03

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Research grade

NeutralWisconsin at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wisconsin

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Wisconsin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWisconsin 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMaryland 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedWisconsin 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Wisconsin 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wisconsin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.