Wisconsin vs. Iowa: O/U 37.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 54¢ · $515 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$514.72
$9.02
43.7¢ → 54¢
+24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Underavg 52.6¢ | $130.25 | $138.57 | +$8.32 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
JU justaluckydude | Overavg 41.3¢ | $122.33 | $127.28 | +$4.95 | 53% 10787-9397 (20184) |
NA NatoAlfista | Overavg 46¢ | $127.65 | $119.33 | -$8.33 | 50% 3874-3834 (7708) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $71.12 | $71.12 | -$0 | 50% 7034-7032 (14066) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 44.3¢ | $56.25 | $58.42 | +$4.08 | 58% 28754-21204 (49958) |
Invested
$130.25
Value
$138.57
PnL
+$8.32
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
Invested
$122.33
Value
$127.28
PnL
+$4.95
Record
53%
10787-9397 (20184)
Invested
$127.65
Value
$119.33
PnL
-$8.33
Record
50%
3874-3834 (7708)
Invested
$71.12
Value
$71.12
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
7034-7032 (14066)
Invested
$56.25
Value
$58.42
PnL
+$4.08
Record
58%
28754-21204 (49958)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.