Wisconsin vs. Iowa: O/U 35.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 52¢ · $989 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 43%
$989.48
$8.94
52.9¢ → 51.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Overavg 52¢ | $468 | $477 | +$9 | 54% 4886-4115 (9001) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 45¢ | $335.54 | $350.45 | +$14.91 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $78.35 | $51.6 | -$26.75 | 53% 10787-9397 (20184) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 36.8¢ | $39.11 | $49.95 | +$10.84 | 49% 7982-8322 (16304) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $48.22 | $49.19 | +$0.97 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $9.12 | $8.93 | -$0.19 | 54% 2988-2575 (5563) |
TO torta.techCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.35 | +$0.15 | 63% 8134-4874 (13008) |
Invested
$468
Value
$477
PnL
+$9
Record
54%
4886-4115 (9001)
Invested
$335.54
Value
$350.45
PnL
+$14.91
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$78.35
Value
$51.6
PnL
-$26.75
Record
53%
10787-9397 (20184)
Invested
$39.11
Value
$49.95
PnL
+$10.84
Record
49%
7982-8322 (16304)
Invested
$48.22
Value
$49.19
PnL
+$0.97
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$9.12
Value
$8.93
PnL
-$0.19
Record
54%
2988-2575 (5563)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0.15
Record
63%
8134-4874 (13008)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.