Spread: Iowa (-7.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Iowa (43%) · Iowa at 97¢ · $800 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Iowa
7
Iowa 43%
$800.3
$30.23
55.3¢ → 97.5¢
+76% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralIowa at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeCTR | Wisconsinavg 32.6¢ | $221.63 | $354.18 | +$132.55 | 53% 4136-3598 (7734) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR | Wisconsinavg 48¢ | $105.12 | $154.39 | +$49.27 | 50% 3874-3834 (7708) |
 RN1 | Iowaavg 51¢ | $228.48 | $132.16 | -$96.32 | 54% 56642-48828 (105470) |
JU justaluckydude | Iowaavg 62.2¢ | $159.73 | $75.82 | -$83.91 | 53% 10787-9397 (20184) |
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100 | Wisconsinavg 39¢ | $40.63 | $73.45 | +$32.82 | 48% 342-364 (706) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Wisconsinavg 70¢ | $7 | $7.05 | +$0.05 | 57% 13827-10598 (24425) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Iowaavg 68¢ | $7.48 | $3.24 | -$4.24 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
Invested
$221.63
Value
$354.18
PnL
+$132.55
Record
53%
4136-3598 (7734)
Invested
$105.12
Value
$154.39
PnL
+$49.27
Record
50%
3874-3834 (7708)
RN1Invested
$228.48
Value
$132.16
PnL
-$96.32
Record
54%
56642-48828 (105470)
Invested
$159.73
Value
$75.82
PnL
-$83.91
Record
53%
10787-9397 (20184)
Invested
$40.63
Value
$73.45
PnL
+$32.82
Record
48%
342-364 (706)
Invested
$7
Value
$7.05
PnL
+$0.05
Record
57%
13827-10598 (24425)
Invested
$7.48
Value
$3.24
PnL
-$4.24
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.