Wisconsin vs. Iowa
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Iowa (50%) · Iowa at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Iowa
4
Iowa 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
-$32.44
56.2¢ → 55.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralIowa at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE Herdonia | Iowaavg 56¢ | $2.6K | $2.5K | -$22.91 | 54% 3357-2905 (6262) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Wisconsinavg 43.3¢ | $163.62 | $162.46 | -$1.16 | 74% 6672-2394 (9066) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Wisconsinavg 44.3¢ | $103.98 | $100.57 | -$4.22 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
| └ Wisconsin leg | Wisconsinavg 44.3¢ | $55.79 | $54.8 | -$0.99 | |
| └ Iowa leg | Iowaavg 59.5¢ | $48.19 | $45.76 | -$3.23 | |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Iowaavg 66¢ | $54.12 | $45.51 | -$8.61 | 38% 417-667 (1084) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Wisconsinavg 44¢ | $21.12 | $21.36 | +$0.24 | 50% 3869-3825 (7694) |
Invested
$2,566.04
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$22.91
Record
54%
3357-2905 (6262)
Invested
$163.62
Value
$162.46
PnL
-$1.16
Record
74%
6672-2394 (9066)
Invested
$103.98
Value
$100.57
PnL
-$4.22
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
Both legs:
Invested
$54.12
Value
$45.51
PnL
-$8.61
Record
38%
417-667 (1084)
Invested
$21.12
Value
$21.36
PnL
+$0.24
Record
50%
3869-3825 (7694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.