Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (73%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Washington State vs. San Diego State: O/U 49.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 27¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
$2.2K
$67.04
52.2¢ → 27¢
-48% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 53¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$39.06 | 54% 17200-14430 (31630) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 53¢ | $530 | $507.4 | +$15.35 | 58% 42202-30652 (72854) |
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR | Underavg 41¢ | $118.49 | $112.71 | -$5.78 | 46% 336-387 (723) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Overavg 63.3¢ | $81.82 | $90.08 | +$8.26 | 53% 10816-9436 (20252) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $35 | $45.5 | +$10.5 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $37.95 | $37.61 | -$0.34 | 54% 3023-2604 (5627) |
Invested
$1,406.32
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$39.06
Record
54%
17200-14430 (31630)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$530
Value
$507.4
PnL
+$15.35
Record
58%
42202-30652 (72854)
Invested
$118.49
Value
$112.71
PnL
-$5.78
Record
46%
336-387 (723)
Invested
$81.82
Value
$90.08
PnL
+$8.26
Record
53%
10816-9436 (20252)
Invested
$35
Value
$45.5
PnL
+$10.5
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
Invested
$37.95
Value
$37.61
PnL
-$0.34
Record
54%
3023-2604 (5627)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.