Washington State vs. San Diego State: O/U 47.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 78¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$16.1K
$693.78
51.8¢ → 78¢
+51% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PW Pwaddler | Overavg 52¢ | $10.9K | $10.8K | -$104.32 | 48% 415-454 (869) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$36.15 | 54% 17200-14430 (31630) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 49¢ | $1.5K | $1.7K | +$758.09 | 58% 42202-30652 (72854) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $93.59 | $92.63 | -$0.96 | 54% 3023-2604 (5627) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Overavg 69¢ | $31.74 | $35.19 | +$3.45 | 53% 10816-9436 (20252) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $9.45 | $10.82 | +$1.37 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
Invested
$10,860.18
Value
$10.8K
PnL
-$104.32
Record
48%
415-454 (869)
Invested
$3,470.12
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$36.15
Record
54%
17200-14430 (31630)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,460
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$758.09
Record
58%
42202-30652 (72854)
Invested
$93.59
Value
$92.63
PnL
-$0.96
Record
54%
3023-2604 (5627)
Invested
$31.74
Value
$35.19
PnL
+$3.45
Record
53%
10816-9436 (20252)
Invested
$9.45
Value
$10.82
PnL
+$1.37
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.