Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Washington State, while the market favors San Diego State (70%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Washington State vs. San Diego State

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Washington State (60%) · Washington State at 30¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Washington State30¢San Diego State70¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Washington State

Consensus Traders

Washington State 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$17.39

Smart Money Entry

40.7¢ → 30¢

-26% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralWashington State at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Washington State

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors San Diego State 70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Washington State30%

San Diego State70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Washington State3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares5,502

Combined PnL-$14.31

San Diego State2 traders

Total Value$270

Total Shares482

Combined PnL-$3.09

Washington State — 60%San Diego State — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	San Diego Stateavg 63.5¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$1.32	53% 10816-9436 (20252)
└ San Diego State leg	San Diego Stateavg 63.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$16.46
└ Washington State leg	Washington Stateavg 36.7¢	$700.7	$715.83	+$15.13
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Washington Stateavg 44¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$0	54% 2311-1998 (4309)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	San Diego Stateavg 66.5¢	$338.87	$354.41	+$15.55	54% 4151-3604 (7755)
└ San Diego State leg	San Diego Stateavg 66.5¢	$238.08	$250.6	+$12.52
└ Washington State leg	Washington Stateavg 29.1¢	$100.79	$103.82	+$3.03
ET ethanazCTR	Washington Stateavg 38¢	$330.6	$326.25	-$4.35	52% 670-626 (1296)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Washington Stateavg 31¢	$308.7	$298.75	-$9.96	50% 19294-19658 (38952)
HE Herdonia	San Diego Stateavg 56¢	$267.2	$267.2	-$2.39	54% 3362-2907 (6269)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	San Diego Stateavg 70¢	$3.5	$2.8	-$0.7	85% 5446-951 (6397)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

San Diego State

Invested

$1,747.68

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$1.32

Record

53%

10816-9436 (20252)

Both legs:

San Diego State$1,046.9863.5¢-$16.46

Washington State$700.736.7¢+$15.13

0x0A77exmmCTR

Washington State

Invested

$1,599.84

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

2311-1998 (4309)

takeormakeARB<$100

San Diego State

Invested

$338.87

Value

$354.41

PnL

+$15.55

Record

54%

4151-3604 (7755)

Both legs:

San Diego State$238.0866.5¢+$12.52

Washington State$100.7929.1¢+$3.03

ethanazCTR

Washington State

Invested

$330.6

Value

$326.25

PnL

-$4.35

Record

52%

670-626 (1296)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Washington State

Invested

$308.7

Value

$298.75

PnL

-$9.96

Record

50%

19294-19658 (38952)

Herdonia

San Diego State

Invested

$267.2

Value

$267.2

PnL

-$2.39

Record

54%

3362-2907 (6269)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

San Diego State

Invested

$3.5

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.7

Record

85%

5446-951 (6397)

Research grade

NeutralWashington State at 30%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Washington State

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors San Diego State 70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Washington State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.