Spread: Nebraska (-8.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Washington (40%) · Washington at 53¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1

Nebraska48¢Washington52¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Washington

Consensus Traders

Washington 40%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$42.91

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 52.5¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralWashington at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Washington

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nebraska48%

Washington53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Washington2 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,003

Combined PnL-$57.43

Nebraska3 traders

Total Value$456.68

Total Shares963

Combined PnL+$14.51

Washington — 40%Nebraska — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MAGATheeStallion	Washingtonavg 54¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$55.43	57% 247-185 (432)
VeryLucky888CTR	Nebraskaavg 46.1¢	$498.31	$396.52	+$14.17	58% 41809-30357 (72166)
heyboy800	Washingtonavg 53.7¢	$161	$159	-$2	61% 935-591 (1526)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Nebraskaavg 46¢	$31.28	$31.96	+$0.34	54% 2985-2572 (5557)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Nebraskaavg 47¢	$28.2	$28.2	+$0	58% 28639-21134 (49773)

MAGATheeStallion

Washington

Invested

$1,999.62

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$55.43

Record

57%

247-185 (432)

VeryLucky888CTR

Nebraska

Invested

$498.31

Value

$396.52

PnL

+$14.17

Record

58%

41809-30357 (72166)

heyboy800

Washington

Invested

$161

Value

$159

PnL

-$2

Record

61%

935-591 (1526)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$31.28

Value

$31.96

PnL

+$0.34

Record

54%

2985-2572 (5557)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$28.2

Value

$28.2

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

Research grade

NeutralWashington at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Washington

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Washington wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.