Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Washington, while the market favors Nebraska (61%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Nebraska (-7.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Washington (54%) · Washington at 40¢ · $35K held · ended Nov 1

Nebraska61¢Washington39¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Washington

Consensus Traders

Washington 54%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.5K

Combined PnL

-$307.03

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 39.5¢

-21% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralWashington at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Washington

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Nebraska 61%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nebraska61%

Washington40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Washington7 traders

Total Value$17.5K

Total Shares35,324

Combined PnL-$117.33

Nebraska6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,599

Combined PnL-$189.71

Washington — 54%Nebraska — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW PwaddlerCTR	Washingtonavg 50¢	$13.0K	$12.9K	-$130	48% 415-454 (869)
FO Forecastication2ARB<$100	Nebraskaavg 50¢	$9.8K	$9.8K	+$17.71	50% 7049-7061 (14110)
└ Nebraska leg	Nebraskaavg 50¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$60.19
└ Washington leg	Washingtonavg 50.1¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$42.47
BO BoggsFromShawshankARB<$100	Washingtonavg 49¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	+$70.92	51% 1094-1053 (2147)
└ Washington leg	Washingtonavg 49¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$33.21
└ Nebraska leg	Nebraskaavg 49.7¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$37.71
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Washingtonavg 49¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$25.51	54% 2311-1998 (4309)
LI lightotunnel35CTR	Washingtonavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$13.83	57% 64-49 (113)
VeryLucky888	Nebraskaavg 50¢	$2.0K	$790	-$189.09	58% 42202-30652 (72854)
0X 0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761d	Nebraskaavg 51¢	$686.54	$686.54	+$0	52% 140-131 (271)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Washingtonavg 49¢	$518.91	$518.91	+$0	46% 445-519 (964)
JO jole24CTR	Washingtonavg 49¢	$170.39	$172.13	+$1.74	44% 1025-1280 (2305)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Nebraskaavg 49¢	$87.21	$89.24	+$2.03	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
└ Nebraska leg	Nebraskaavg 49¢	$55.85	$57.56	+$1.71
└ Washington leg	Washingtonavg 49¢	$31.36	$31.68	+$0.32
TimeTraveler<$100	Nebraskaavg 51¢	$76.5	$75.75	-$0.75	42% 1968-2772 (4740)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Nebraskaavg 52¢	$35.88	$34.85	-$1.04	53% 10816-9436 (20252)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Washingtonavg 49¢	$24.5	$21.37	-$0.32	50% 7925-7961 (15886)
PU purplegatto<$100	Nebraskaavg 50¢	$10	$11.1	+$1.1	50% 5891-5982 (11873)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Nebraskaavg 50¢	$6.98	$7.05	+$0.07	54% 17200-14430 (31630)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Washingtonavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.38	-$0.42	48% 8249-8767 (17016)

PwaddlerCTR

Washington

Invested

$13,000

Value

$12.9K

PnL

-$130

Record

48%

415-454 (869)

Forecastication2ARB<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$9,775.46

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$17.71

Record

50%

7049-7061 (14110)

Both legs:

Nebraska$6,01950¢+$60.19

Washington$3,756.4650.1¢-$42.47

BoggsFromShawshankARB<$100

Washington

Invested

$5,466.5

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$70.92

Record

51%

1094-1053 (2147)

Both legs:

Washington$3,254.2349¢+$33.21

Nebraska$2,212.2749.7¢+$37.71

0x0A77exmmCTR

Washington

Invested

$2,499.98

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$25.51

Record

54%

2311-1998 (4309)

lightotunnel35CTR

Washington

Invested

$1,382.51

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$13.83

Record

57%

64-49 (113)

VeryLucky888

Nebraska

Invested

$2,002.29

Value

$790

PnL

-$189.09

Record

58%

42202-30652 (72854)

0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761d

Nebraska

Invested

$686.54

Value

$686.54

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

140-131 (271)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Washington

Invested

$518.91

Value

$518.91

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

445-519 (964)

jole24CTR

Washington

Invested

$170.39

Value

$172.13

PnL

+$1.74

Record

44%

1025-1280 (2305)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$87.21

Value

$89.24

PnL

+$2.03

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

Both legs:

Nebraska$55.8549¢+$1.71

Washington$31.3649¢+$0.32

TimeTraveler<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$76.5

Value

$75.75

PnL

-$0.75

Record

42%

1968-2772 (4740)

justaluckydude<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$35.88

Value

$34.85

PnL

-$1.04

Record

53%

10816-9436 (20252)

RLWGCTR<$100

Washington

Invested

$24.5

Value

$21.37

PnL

-$0.32

Record

50%

7925-7961 (15886)

purplegatto<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$10

Value

$11.1

PnL

+$1.1

Record

50%

5891-5982 (11873)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$6.98

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$0.07

Record

54%

17200-14430 (31630)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Washington

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.42

Record

48%

8249-8767 (17016)

Research grade

NeutralWashington at 40%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Washington

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Nebraska 61%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Washington wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.