Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Washington vs. Michigan State: O/U 47.5

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (13%) · Over at 43¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 14

Over43¢Under57¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 13%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$284.2

Research grade

NeutralOver at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares7,774

Combined PnL+$128.18

Under7 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares7,862

Combined PnL+$156.03

Over — 13%Under — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Overavg 60.9¢	$4.7K	$4.9K	+$128.18	60% 1016-678 (1694)
RN1	Underavg 39.8¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$190.04	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 37.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$31.25	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 43.2¢	$313.43	$278.58	-$34.85	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.2¢	$218.04	$191.84	-$26.2
└ Over leg	Overavg 68.2¢	$95.39	$86.74	-$8.65
38 38791873984189	Underavg 38.6¢	$168.18	$159.81	-$4.57	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Underavg 39¢	$97.5	$116.25	+$18.75	39% 593-921 (1514)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 48.4¢	$55.24	$42.84	-$12.4	43% 198-262 (460)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 47.5¢	$54.12	$25.25	-$4.47	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 38¢	$7.63	$7.55	-$0.08	51% 917-874 (1791)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$4,730.44

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$128.18

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,771.83

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$190.04

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$1,162.85

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$31.25

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$313.43

Value

$278.58

PnL

-$34.85

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

Both legs:

Under$218.0443.2¢-$26.2

Over$95.3968.2¢-$8.65

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$168.18

Value

$159.81

PnL

-$4.57

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under

Invested

$97.5

Value

$116.25

PnL

+$18.75

Record

39%

593-921 (1514)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$55.24

Value

$42.84

PnL

-$12.4

Record

43%

198-262 (460)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$54.12

Value

$25.25

PnL

-$4.47

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$7.63

Value

$7.55

PnL

-$0.08

Record

51%

917-874 (1791)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 43%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.