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Michigan StateMichigan StateWashington
RN1<$100WashingtonMichigan State
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Michigan State — but Washington won instead.
Spread: Washington (-6.5)
Resolved Washington. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Michigan State. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Michigan State 50%
Total Value
$57.13
Combined PnL
-$302.37
Smart Money Signal
Michigan State
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Washington100%
Michigan State0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Michigan State3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares597
Combined PnL-$340.27
Washington2 traders
Total Value$57.13
Total Shares57
Combined PnL+$37.9
Michigan State — 60%Washington — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Michigan Stateavg 57¢ | $342.11 | — | -$320.11 | 47% 3551-3935 (7486) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Michigan Stateavg 56¢ | $20.16 | — | -$20.16 | 53% 7310-6373 (13683) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Washingtonavg 36¢ | $13.68 | $38 | +$24.32 | 50% 1827-1860 (3687) |
RN1<$100 | Washingtonavg 29¢ | $5.55 | $19.13 | +$13.58 | 55% 5703-4745 (10448) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Michigan Stateavg 50¢ | $400 | — | +$0 | 65% 140-74 (214) |
38
38791873984189CTRInvested
$342.11
Value
—
PnL
-$320.11
Record
47%
3551-3935 (7486)
CI
cigarettesCTR<$100Invested
$20.16
Value
—
PnL
-$20.16
Record
53%
7310-6373 (13683)
PA
Pan9X<$100Invested
$13.68
Value
$38
PnL
+$24.32
Record
50%
1827-1860 (3687)
RN1<$100Invested
$5.55
Value
$19.13
PnL
+$13.58
Record
55%
5703-4745 (10448)
OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTRInvested
$400
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
140-74 (214)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x8010f29d...0ab1d4
Slug
cfb-wash-mst-2026-11-14-spread-away-6pt5