Spread: Washington (-5.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Michigan State (100%) · Michigan State at 57¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Michigan State
6
Michigan State 100%
$3.2K
$54.91
55.2¢ → 57¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralMichigan State at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Michigan State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Michigan Stateavg 55¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$32.87 | 57% 3430-2600 (6030) |
 VeryLucky888 | Michigan Stateavg 55.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$20 | 52% 718-671 (1389) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Michigan Stateavg 56¢ | $98 | $98.87 | +$0.87 | 27% 151-418 (569) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Michigan Stateavg 56¢ | $48.72 | $49.15 | +$0.43 | 55% 197-161 (358) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Michigan Stateavg 55.5¢ | $29.59 | $30.13 | +$0.53 | 53% 866-756 (1622) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Michigan Stateavg 56¢ | $22.69 | $22.89 | +$0.2 | 59% 3533-2406 (5939) |
Invested
$1,807.61
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$32.87
Record
57%
3430-2600 (6030)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,110
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$20
Record
52%
718-671 (1389)
Invested
$98
Value
$98.87
PnL
+$0.87
Record
27%
151-418 (569)
Invested
$48.72
Value
$49.15
PnL
+$0.43
Record
55%
197-161 (358)
Invested
$29.59
Value
$30.13
PnL
+$0.53
Record
53%
866-756 (1622)
Invested
$22.69
Value
$22.89
PnL
+$0.2
Record
59%
3533-2406 (5939)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.