Spread: Washington (-4.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Michigan State (50%) · Michigan State at 61¢ · $26K held · ended Nov 14

Washington40¢Michigan State60¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Michigan State

Consensus Traders

Michigan State 50%

Total Value

$26.2K

Combined PnL

$97.95

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 60.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMichigan State at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michigan State

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Washington40%

Michigan State61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michigan State5 traders

Total Value$15.7K

Total Shares25,983

Combined PnL+$228.13

Washington5 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares26,330

Combined PnL-$130.18

Michigan State — 50%Washington — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Michigan State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMichigan State 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMichigan State 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedMichigan State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Michigan State 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Michigan Stateavg 59.5¢	$10.7K	$10.9K	+$185.69	60% 1016-678 (1694)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Washingtonavg 40.1¢	$5.4K	$5.3K	-$81.46	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
RN1CTR	Washingtonavg 40.5¢	$4.8K	$4.7K	-$58.89	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
VI vibing123	Michigan Stateavg 60.2¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$19.52	62% 1152-704 (1856)
38 38791873984189CTR	Washingtonavg 40.4¢	$345.45	$355.45	+$10	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
nigiri99	Michigan Stateavg 55¢	$330	$342	+$12	52% 602-565 (1167)
PA Pan9XCTR	Washingtonavg 39.9¢	$112.01	$112.39	+$0.38	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
VeryLucky888	Michigan Stateavg 54¢	$405.29	$85.81	+$10.52	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
GH ghorrock<$100	Michigan Stateavg 54¢	$7.26	$7.66	+$0.4	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Washingtonavg 47¢	$2.49	$2.27	-$0.21	33% 109-217 (326)

primm

Michigan State

Invested

$10,702.36

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$185.69

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Washington

Invested

$5,402.51

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$81.46

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

RN1CTR

Washington

Invested

$4,770.09

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$58.89

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

vibing123

Michigan State

Invested

$4,350.11

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$19.52

Record

62%

1152-704 (1856)

38791873984189CTR

Washington

Invested

$345.45

Value

$355.45

PnL

+$10

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

nigiri99

Michigan State

Invested

$330

Value

$342

PnL

+$12

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

Pan9XCTR

Washington

Invested

$112.01

Value

$112.39

PnL

+$0.38

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

VeryLucky888

Michigan State

Invested

$405.29

Value

$85.81

PnL

+$10.52

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

ghorrock<$100

Michigan State

Invested

$7.26

Value

$7.66

PnL

+$0.4

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

OddstormCTR<$100

Washington

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.27

PnL

-$0.21

Record

33%

109-217 (326)

Research grade

NeutralMichigan State at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Michigan State

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Michigan State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMichigan State 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMichigan State 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedMichigan State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Michigan State 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michigan State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.