Spread: Washington (-3.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Michigan State (29%) · Michigan State at 53¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Michigan State
7
Michigan State 29%
$9.1K
$1.04
52.9¢ → 52.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralMichigan State at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Michigan State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PW Pwaddler | Michigan Stateavg 52.9¢ | $4.9K | $4.8K | -$40.5 | 49% 261-275 (536) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Washingtonavg 47¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$24.18 | 57% 3276-2473 (5749) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Washingtonavg 47¢ | $840.03 | $848.96 | +$8.94 | 48% 131-141 (272) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Washingtonavg 47.4¢ | $651.25 | $653.13 | +$1.88 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Washingtonavg 47¢ | $470 | $475 | +$5 | 52% 597-541 (1138) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Washingtonavg 47¢ | $10.06 | $10.85 | +$0.79 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Michigan Stateavg 44¢ | $3.74 | $4.49 | +$0.76 | 47% 350-393 (743) |
Invested
$4,879.21
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$40.5
Record
49%
261-275 (536)
Invested
$2,272.85
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$24.18
Record
57%
3276-2473 (5749)
Invested
$840.03
Value
$848.96
PnL
+$8.94
Record
48%
131-141 (272)
Invested
$651.25
Value
$653.13
PnL
+$1.88
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$470
Value
$475
PnL
+$5
Record
52%
597-541 (1138)
Invested
$10.06
Value
$10.85
PnL
+$0.79
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
Invested
$3.74
Value
$4.49
PnL
+$0.76
Record
47%
350-393 (743)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.