Spread: Washington (-2.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Washington (33%) · Washington at 53¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

Washington53¢Michigan State47¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Washington

Consensus Traders

Washington 33%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$48.28

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralWashington at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Washington

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Washington53%

Michigan State48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Washington3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,115

Combined PnL+$27.38

Michigan State6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,683

Combined PnL+$20.9

Washington — 33%Michigan State — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Washingtonavg 52¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$21.74	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Michigan Stateavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$13.02	44% 44-57 (101)
38 38791873984189CTR	Michigan Stateavg 48¢	$800.88	$429.75	+$4.82	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
VeryLucky888	Washingtonavg 52¢	$344	$329.07	+$3.55	54% 1473-1278 (2751)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Michigan Stateavg 48¢	$96	$97	+$1	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Washingtonavg 50¢	$69.44	$71.53	+$2.08	4% 17-391 (408)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Michigan Stateavg 48¢	$21.6	$21.83	+$0.22	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
PR primmCTR<$100	Michigan Stateavg 44¢	$15.19	$16.74	+$1.55	59% 932-653 (1585)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Michigan Stateavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.43	+$0.27	56% 3687-2847 (6534)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Washington

Invested

$2,261.48

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$21.74

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Michigan State

Invested

$1,249.92

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.02

Record

44%

44-57 (101)

38791873984189CTR

Michigan State

Invested

$800.88

Value

$429.75

PnL

+$4.82

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

VeryLucky888

Washington

Invested

$344

Value

$329.07

PnL

+$3.55

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Michigan State

Invested

$96

Value

$97

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Washington

Invested

$69.44

Value

$71.53

PnL

+$2.08

Record

17-391 (408)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Michigan State

Invested

$21.6

Value

$21.83

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

primmCTR<$100

Michigan State

Invested

$15.19

Value

$16.74

PnL

+$1.55

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Michigan State

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.27

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Research grade

NeutralWashington at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Washington

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Washington wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.