Spread: Washington (-1.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Washington (70%) · Washington at 69¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Washington69¢Michigan State31¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Washington

Consensus Traders

Washington 70%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$666.04

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 69¢

+28% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralWashington at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Washington

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Washington69%

Michigan State31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michigan State3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,988

Combined PnL-$706.37

Washington7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,638

Combined PnL+$40.33

Michigan State — 30%Washington — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Washington. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpWashington 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMichigan State 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Washington 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Michigan Stateavg 44.6¢	$1.7K	$1.0K	-$708.39	60% 1016-678 (1694)
RN1	Washingtonavg 54.4¢	$874.07	$907.06	+$32.99	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Washingtonavg 53¢	$752.6	$752.6	+$0	59% 1137-785 (1922)
38 38791873984189	Washingtonavg 54.9¢	$1.5K	$534.52	-$29.53	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
65 6512395314597884	Washingtonavg 53.1¢	$215.2	$245.41	+$30.21	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
PA Pan9X	Washingtonavg 53.4¢	$103.15	$109.04	+$5.89	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Washingtonavg 53.6¢	$32.84	$34	+$1.17	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Michigan Stateavg 43¢	$17.71	$19.36	+$1.65	57% 168-128 (296)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Michigan Stateavg 46¢	$17.17	$17.54	+$0.37	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
GH ghorrock<$100	Washingtonavg 57¢	$5.74	$5.34	-$0.4	53% 1938-1717 (3655)

primmCTR

Michigan State

Invested

$1,744.28

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$708.39

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

RN1

Washington

Invested

$874.07

Value

$907.06

PnL

+$32.99

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Washington

Invested

$752.6

Value

$752.6

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

1137-785 (1922)

38791873984189

Washington

Invested

$1,451.96

Value

$534.52

PnL

-$29.53

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

6512395314597884

Washington

Invested

$215.2

Value

$245.41

PnL

+$30.21

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

Pan9X

Washington

Invested

$103.15

Value

$109.04

PnL

+$5.89

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Washington

Invested

$32.84

Value

$34

PnL

+$1.17

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Michigan State

Invested

$17.71

Value

$19.36

PnL

+$1.65

Record

57%

168-128 (296)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Michigan State

Invested

$17.17

Value

$17.54

PnL

+$0.37

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

ghorrock<$100

Washington

Invested

$5.74

Value

$5.34

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

Research grade

NeutralWashington at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Washington

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Washington. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpWashington 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMichigan State 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Washington 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Washington wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.