Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Wake Forest vs. SMU: O/U 59.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 49¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$4.15

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 48.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,314

Combined PnL+$19.45

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,273

Combined PnL-$15.3

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Underavg 48¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$23.01	59% 931-653 (1584)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 51.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$6.49	53% 1343-1170 (2513)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 52¢	$613.87	$608.06	-$5.8	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 48¢	$264.28	$261.53	-$2.75	37% 957-1658 (2615)
NM NM-P	Overavg 52¢	$182	$180.25	-$1.75	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
GC GC-P	Overavg 52¢	$182	$180.25	-$1.75	37% 353-603 (956)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$79.06	$78.25	-$0.81	47% 99-111 (210)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Overavg 52¢	$71.24	$71.93	+$0.68	48% 286-304 (590)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Overavg 52¢	$19.5	$19.31	-$0.19	43% 180-237 (417)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$2,208.84

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$23.01

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$1,151.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$6.49

Record

53%

1343-1170 (2513)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$613.87

Value

$608.06

PnL

-$5.8

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$264.28

Value

$261.53

PnL

-$2.75

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$182

Value

$180.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$182

Value

$180.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$79.06

Value

$78.25

PnL

-$0.81

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Over

Invested

$71.24

Value

$71.93

PnL

+$0.68

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

NatoAlfista<$100

Over

Invested

$19.5

Value

$19.31

PnL

-$0.19

Record

43%

180-237 (417)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.