Spread: Wake Forest (-1.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wake Forest (67%) · Wake Forest at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Wake Forest>99¢SMU<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wake Forest

Consensus Traders

Wake Forest 67%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$337.72

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 99.7¢

+111% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralWake Forest at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wake Forest

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wake Forest100%

SMU0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wake Forest6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,458

Combined PnL+$355.79

SMU3 traders

Total Value$101.13

Total Shares253

Combined PnL-$18.07

Wake Forest — 67%SMU — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Wake Forest. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWake Forest 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedWake Forest 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wake Forest 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Wake Forestavg 51¢	$283.56	$442.02	+$158.46	59% 931-653 (1584)
38 38791873984189	Wake Forestavg 44¢	$368.42	$336.58	+$154	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Wake Forestavg 45¢	$166.19	$192.05	+$25.85	48% 293-321 (614)
SN SnakeBallCTR	SMUavg 49.2¢	$117	$99.96	-$17.04	48% 912-1002 (1914)
RN1<$100	Wake Forestavg 52¢	$27.11	$41.44	+$14.33	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
PA Pan9X<$100	Wake Forestavg 45¢	$20.25	$23.4	+$3.15	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
GH ghorrock<$100	Wake Forestavg 46¢	$10.77	$10.77	-$0	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	SMUavg 42¢	$2.1	$1.03	-$1.08	47% 540-597 (1137)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	SMUavg 1¢	$0.1	$0.14	+$0.04	50% 3807-3775 (7582)

primm

Wake Forest

Invested

$283.56

Value

$442.02

PnL

+$158.46

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

38791873984189

Wake Forest

Invested

$368.42

Value

$336.58

PnL

+$154

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Wake Forest

Invested

$166.19

Value

$192.05

PnL

+$25.85

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

SnakeBallCTR

SMU

Invested

$117

Value

$99.96

PnL

-$17.04

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

RN1<$100

Wake Forest

Invested

$27.11

Value

$41.44

PnL

+$14.33

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

Pan9X<$100

Wake Forest

Invested

$20.25

Value

$23.4

PnL

+$3.15

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

ghorrock<$100

Wake Forest

Invested

$10.77

Value

$10.77

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

SMU

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$1.08

Record

47%

540-597 (1137)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

SMU

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Research grade

NeutralWake Forest at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Wake Forest

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Wake Forest. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWake Forest 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedWake Forest 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wake Forest 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wake Forest wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.