Wake Forest vs. SMU
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold SMU (100%) · SMU at 51¢ · $852 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
SMU
5
SMU 100%
$852.06
$26
49.1¢ → 50.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSMU at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on SMU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | SMUavg 49¢ | $506.17 | $521.67 | +$15.49 | 57% 3430-2600 (6030) |
SN SnakeBall | SMUavg 49¢ | $160.93 | $165.85 | +$4.93 | 46% 420-485 (905) |
 VeryLucky888 | SMUavg 49.9¢ | $203.72 | $103.35 | +$3.33 | 52% 718-671 (1389) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | SMUavg 48.9¢ | $66.69 | $48.57 | +$1.88 | 48% 1999-2208 (4207) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | SMUavg 49¢ | $12.25 | $12.63 | +$0.38 | 55% 197-161 (358) |
Invested
$506.17
Value
$521.67
PnL
+$15.49
Record
57%
3430-2600 (6030)
Invested
$160.93
Value
$165.85
PnL
+$4.93
Record
46%
420-485 (905)
VeryLucky888Invested
$203.72
Value
$103.35
PnL
+$3.33
Record
52%
718-671 (1389)
Invested
$66.69
Value
$48.57
PnL
+$1.88
Record
48%
1999-2208 (4207)
Invested
$12.25
Value
$12.63
PnL
+$0.38
Record
55%
197-161 (358)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.