Spread: Wake Forest (-13.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Virginia (67%) · Virginia at 50¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Virginia
3
Virginia 67%
$12.5K
$2.24
51¢ → 50.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralVirginia at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 EdZacharyCTR | Wake Forestavg 49¢ | $6.2K | $6.3K | +$63.5 | 39% 88-138 (226) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Virginiaavg 51¢ | $6.2K | $6.2K | -$61.08 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Virginiaavg 51¢ | $19.38 | $19.19 | -$0.19 | 50% 3874-3834 (7708) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.