Virginia vs. Wake Forest

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wake Forest (56%) · Wake Forest at 89¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 31

Virginia11¢Wake Forest89¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wake Forest

Consensus Traders

Wake Forest 56%

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

-$66.03

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 89¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralWake Forest at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wake Forest

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Virginia11%

Wake Forest89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wake Forest5 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares5,539

Combined PnL+$1.51

Virginia4 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares19,536

Combined PnL-$67.54

Wake Forest — 56%Virginia — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Wake Forest. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVirginia 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpVirginia 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWake Forest 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedWake Forest 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wake Forest 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Wake Forestavg 82¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	-$0	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
HI hi774cCTR	Virginiaavg 18¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$0	52% 4736-4456 (9192)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Virginiaavg 18¢	$491.22	$491.22	-$0	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
RollAwayTheDew	Wake Forestavg 81¢	$300.51	$304.22	+$1.86	53% 404-355 (759)
BI BillBenter2026	Wake Forestavg 85.8¢	$109	$108.59	-$0.42	58% 18675-13734 (32409)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Virginiaavg 18¢	$173.97	$106.32	-$67.66	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Wake Forestavg 82¢	$24.6	$24.6	-$0	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
TA takeormake<$100	Wake Forestavg 84¢	$11.41	$11.48	+$0.07	53% 4137-3598 (7735)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Virginiaavg 14¢	$3.33	$3.44	+$0.12	52% 13817-12605 (26422)

0xheavy888

Wake Forest

Invested

$4,099.93

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

hi774cCTR

Virginia

Invested

$2,846.94

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

4736-4456 (9192)

HerdoniaCTR

Virginia

Invested

$491.22

Value

$491.22

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

RollAwayTheDew

Wake Forest

Invested

$300.51

Value

$304.22

PnL

+$1.86

Record

53%

404-355 (759)

BillBenter2026

Wake Forest

Invested

$109

Value

$108.59

PnL

-$0.42

Record

58%

18675-13734 (32409)

UpTheBluesCTR

Virginia

Invested

$173.97

Value

$106.32

PnL

-$67.66

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Wake Forest

Invested

$24.6

Value

$24.6

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

takeormake<$100

Wake Forest

Invested

$11.41

Value

$11.48

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

4137-3598 (7735)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Virginia

Invested

$3.33

Value

$3.44

PnL

+$0.12

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

Research grade

NeutralWake Forest at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wake Forest

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Wake Forest. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVirginia 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpVirginia 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWake Forest 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedWake Forest 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wake Forest 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wake Forest wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.