UTEP vs. North Dakota State: O/U 43.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 72¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$1.2K
$2.94
48.3¢ → 72¢
+49% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 49¢ | $980 | $940 | -$40 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
JU justaluckydude | Underavg 40.4¢ | $79.96 | $135.63 | +$55.67 | 53% 10788-9397 (20185) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $88.24 | $84.6 | -$3.64 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $53.61 | $42.21 | -$11.41 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $27.26 | $29.58 | +$2.32 | 50% 3877-3837 (7714) |
 itwasawholethingCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $11.75 | $11.75 | -$0 | 60% 56-38 (94) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$980
Value
$940
PnL
-$40
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$79.96
Value
$135.63
PnL
+$55.67
Record
53%
10788-9397 (20185)
Invested
$88.24
Value
$84.6
PnL
-$3.64
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$53.61
Value
$42.21
PnL
-$11.41
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Invested
$27.26
Value
$29.58
PnL
+$2.32
Record
50%
3877-3837 (7714)
itwasawholethingCTR<$100Invested
$11.75
Value
$11.75
PnL
-$0
Record
60%
56-38 (94)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.