Spread: North Dakota State (-23.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold North Dakota State (100%) · North Dakota State at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
North Dakota State
3
North Dakota State 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$5.4
54.7¢ → 53¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNorth Dakota State at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | North Dakota Stateavg 53¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$9.62 | 46% 7988-9443 (17431) |
| └ North Dakota State leg | North Dakota Stateavg 53¢ | $675.71 | $675.71 | +$0 | |
| └ UTEP leg | UTEPavg 48.1¢ | $420.71 | $411.09 | -$9.62 | |
OD Oddstorm | North Dakota Stateavg 54.9¢ | $147.75 | $142.57 | -$5.18 | 38% 377-620 (997) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | North Dakota Stateavg 53¢ | $16.96 | $16.96 | +$0 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | North Dakota Stateavg 54¢ | $11.88 | $11.66 | -$0.22 | 54% 2976-2554 (5530) |
Invested
$1,096.42
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$9.62
Record
46%
7988-9443 (17431)
Both legs:
Invested
$147.75
Value
$142.57
PnL
-$5.18
Record
38%
377-620 (997)
Invested
$16.96
Value
$16.96
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
Invested
$11.88
Value
$11.66
PnL
-$0.22
Record
54%
2976-2554 (5530)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.