UTEP vs. North Dakota State
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold North Dakota State (83%) · North Dakota State at 95¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
North Dakota State
6
North Dakota State 83%
$5.4K
-$6.49
94¢ → 94.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNorth Dakota State at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on North Dakota State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | North Dakota Stateavg 94¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | +$20.64 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
 VeryLucky888 | North Dakota Stateavg 94¢ | $940 | $945 | +$5 | 58% 41980-30479 (72459) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | UTEPavg 5¢ | $352.43 | $281.94 | -$35.24 | 49% 12659-13060 (25719) |
AN AnonymousUsername | North Dakota Stateavg 94¢ | $215.61 | $218.39 | +$2.77 | 74% 6686-2399 (9085) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | North Dakota Stateavg 95¢ | $76 | $76 | +$0.4 | 53% 404-355 (759) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | North Dakota Stateavg 95¢ | $13.3 | $13.23 | -$0.07 | 58% 28754-21204 (49958) |
Invested
$3,880.92
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$20.64
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
VeryLucky888Invested
$940
Value
$945
PnL
+$5
Record
58%
41980-30479 (72459)
Invested
$352.43
Value
$281.94
PnL
-$35.24
Record
49%
12659-13060 (25719)
Invested
$215.61
Value
$218.39
PnL
+$2.77
Record
74%
6686-2399 (9085)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$76
Value
$76
PnL
+$0.4
Record
53%
404-355 (759)
Invested
$13.3
Value
$13.23
PnL
-$0.07
Record
58%
28754-21204 (49958)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.