Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Utah State, while the market favors San Diego State (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: San Diego State (-3.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Utah State (63%) · Utah State at 0.5¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15

San Diego State>99¢Utah State<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Utah State

Consensus Traders

Utah State 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

56.3¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUtah State at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah State

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors San Diego State 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

San Diego State100%

Utah State1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

San Diego State3 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares5,228

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Utah State5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,272

Combined PnL-$505.52

San Diego State — 38%Utah State — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Utah State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUtah State 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Utah State 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CM cm2897	San Diego Stateavg 43¢	$1.6K	$3.3K	+$1.7K	49% 1217-1263 (2480)
PR primmCTR	Utah Stateavg 57¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$276.04	59% 1099-762 (1861)
BI biying88888	San Diego Stateavg 43¢	$648.08	$1.5K	+$851.55	44% 235-299 (534)
RN1ARB<$100	Utah Stateavg 56.8¢	$981.48	$987.56	+$6.08	54% 5879-4932 (10811)
└ Utah State leg	Utah Stateavg 56.8¢	$546.5	$499.94	-$46.56
└ San Diego State leg	San Diego Stateavg 42.8¢	$434.98	$487.62	+$52.64
38 38791873984189CTR	Utah Stateavg 56¢	$287.86	$91.66	-$31.52	48% 3772-4126 (7898)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Utah Stateavg 57¢	$57	$52	-$5	51% 1040-1018 (2058)
PA Pan9X<$100	San Diego Stateavg 47.9¢	$46	$46.08	+$0.08	50% 2024-2058 (4082)
TA takeormakeCTR	Utah Stateavg 48.1¢	$228.59	$35.63	-$192.97	57% 3662-2723 (6385)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Utah Stateavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.6	+$0	39% 1485-2329 (3814)

cm2897

San Diego State

Invested

$1,558.75

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

49%

1217-1263 (2480)

primmCTR

Utah State

Invested

$3,146.86

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$276.04

Record

59%

1099-762 (1861)

biying88888

San Diego State

Invested

$648.08

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$851.55

Record

44%

235-299 (534)

RN1ARB<$100

Utah State

Invested

$981.48

Value

$987.56

PnL

+$6.08

Record

54%

5879-4932 (10811)

Both legs:

Utah State$546.556.8¢-$46.56

San Diego State$434.9842.8¢+$52.64

38791873984189CTR

Utah State

Invested

$287.86

Value

$91.66

PnL

-$31.52

Record

48%

3772-4126 (7898)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Utah State

Invested

$57

Value

$52

PnL

-$5

Record

51%

1040-1018 (2058)

Pan9X<$100

San Diego State

Invested

$46

Value

$46.08

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

2024-2058 (4082)

takeormakeCTR

Utah State

Invested

$228.59

Value

$35.63

PnL

-$192.97

Record

57%

3662-2723 (6385)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Utah State

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1485-2329 (3814)

Research grade

AvoidUtah State at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Utah State

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors San Diego State 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Utah State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUtah State 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Utah State 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.