Spread: San Diego State (-2.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold San Diego State (56%) · San Diego State at 99¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15

San Diego State>99¢Utah State<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

San Diego State

Consensus Traders

San Diego State 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

55.7¢ → 99.5¢

+79% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSan Diego State at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

San Diego State

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

San Diego State99%

Utah State1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

San Diego State5 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,494

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Utah State4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares6,027

Combined PnL-$195.07

San Diego State — 56%Utah State — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on San Diego State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUtah State 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000San Diego State 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI biying88888	San Diego Stateavg 55¢	$2.7K	$4.9K	+$2.2K	44% 235-299 (534)
PR primmCTR	Utah Stateavg 45.6¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$19.66	59% 1099-762 (1861)
RN1ARB<$100	San Diego Stateavg 51.7¢	$869.24	$900.23	+$30.99	54% 5879-4932 (10811)
└ San Diego State leg	San Diego Stateavg 51.7¢	$514.19	$537.29	+$23.1
└ Utah State leg	Utah Stateavg 45¢	$355.05	$362.94	+$7.89
PA Pan9X	San Diego Stateavg 61.5¢	$138.94	$122.04	-$16.9	50% 2024-2058 (4082)
TO topdogbigboi	San Diego Stateavg 63¢	$126	$108	-$18	39% 1485-2329 (3814)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	San Diego Stateavg 61¢	$67.71	$59.94	-$7.77	50% 2776-2756 (5532)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Utah Stateavg 45¢	$45	$46	+$1	51% 1040-1018 (2058)
TA takeormakeCTR	Utah Stateavg 37.2¢	$223.22	$30	-$193.22	57% 3662-2723 (6385)
38 38791873984189<$100	San Diego Stateavg 51.9¢	$12.13	$12.63	+$0.5	48% 3772-4126 (7898)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Utah Stateavg 46¢	$26.22	$3.71	-$22.52	44% 237-303 (540)

biying88888

San Diego State

Invested

$2,713.39

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

44%

235-299 (534)

primmCTR

Utah State

Invested

$2,404.74

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$19.66

Record

59%

1099-762 (1861)

RN1ARB<$100

San Diego State

Invested

$869.24

Value

$900.23

PnL

+$30.99

Record

54%

5879-4932 (10811)

Both legs:

San Diego State$514.1951.7¢+$23.1

Utah State$355.0545¢+$7.89

Pan9X

San Diego State

Invested

$138.94

Value

$122.04

PnL

-$16.9

Record

50%

2024-2058 (4082)

topdogbigboi

San Diego State

Invested

$126

Value

$108

PnL

-$18

Record

39%

1485-2329 (3814)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

San Diego State

Invested

$67.71

Value

$59.94

PnL

-$7.77

Record

50%

2776-2756 (5532)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Utah State

Invested

$45

Value

$46

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

1040-1018 (2058)

takeormakeCTR

Utah State

Invested

$223.22

Value

$30

PnL

-$193.22

Record

57%

3662-2723 (6385)

38791873984189<$100

San Diego State

Invested

$12.13

Value

$12.63

PnL

+$0.5

Record

48%

3772-4126 (7898)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Utah State

Invested

$26.22

Value

$3.71

PnL

-$22.52

Record

44%

237-303 (540)

Research grade

NeutralSan Diego State at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

San Diego State

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on San Diego State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUtah State 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000San Diego State 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that San Diego State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.